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If a token provides utility or is burnt using protocol fees then this will increase demand beyond just investor interest. Governance tokens with no burn mechanism are an example where there is no value proposal other than a voting mechanism on protocol changes. This is how many tokens were distributed at launch.
This is often quoted as a valuation metric for a project. Staking rewards and incentives are often used to bootstrap liquidity in the early stages of most DeFi projects. A fixed supply of tokens will be distributed to investors that stake liquidity provider LP tokens. This incentivises the growth of the liquidity pool and encourages yield farmers to buy tokens to stake.
For ERC20 tokens we can use a block explorer like etherscan to see the token distribution. Generally more users with less tokens per wallet is beneficial as it means less risk of a single whale dumping their holdings. On launch almost all demand will come from speculative investment and traders. This acts as a voting mechanism where the market projects their assessment of the best projects. Later token utility and internal usage can greatly affect the demand on exchange and ultimately price.
Crypto projects will usually publish a whitepaper which will often have a page on tokenomics and how the team intends to create demand on exchange. Assessing the viability and real world usage is key to quantifying likely demand. In the short and mid-term investor sentiment is still the key driver of supply and demand on exchange. Mr Market tends to overreact to both positive and negative news flow and then correct itself as participants rebalance and adjust.
We can borrow frameworks from venture capital investors and apply it to crypto markets. Investments have a long time horizon as their exit opportunity may not come for years. Deal flow is critical for early stage investors in crypto markets as much as it is in traditional markets. That might be signing up and contributing at hackathons or automating a weekly report on the traction of defi protocols.
The best deals and opportunities might not be available at a single moment in time and finding a way to have constant access to deal flow is critical to success. A commonly used framework for angel investing is the Market Team Product Distribution assessment. To get more granular we can start to build valuation models for crypto projects. In later stage venture capital deals valuations are based on some multiple of predicted future revenues or profits.
For cryptocurrencies we first need to standardise our thesis on sector growth over the next 5 or 10 years. If I believe that the DeFi market will double every year for the next five years then I can use this thesis to start predicting future valuations. We can look at a projects current adoption and growth rate relative to sector growth measured in financial terms or on-chain metrics like number of wallet addresses.
From there we can start to model how future fees and revenues will impact tokenomics and put together a potential valuation. If you are doing it right, you are continuously investing in things that are non-consensus at the time of investment. And let me translate non-consensus, in sort of practical terms, it translates to crazy. To find the next ten bagger token you either need to be early or you need to buy in at an opportune time and be right about the long term fundamentals of a project.
Decentralised finance is one of the sectors that I think will outperform and projects working in the space are in a good position to do very well. Bitcoin provides a baseline and as you move up the risk reward curve you accept more risk of loss of outlay in return for expected outperformance.
Market conditions play a big part as well. More money is made allocating capital to good projects with long term potential during bear markets when prices are depressed and the upside is greatest. Bear in mind that investing in low market cap projects is most risky when markets are toppy because money flows back to Bitcoin, stablecoins and more established projects very quickly in the event of market downturn.
One thought experiment you can do is to to think about how a project might evolve over a long period such as 10 or 20 years. Is it more likely that we will be trading on Binance or Uniswap in 20 years time? Will traditional finance institutions use synthetic assets or would regulators prevent it? How will every day users interact with DeFi protocols in the future? There are going to be tokens that 10x in the next year. If Bitcoin and Ethereum lead the market up beyond all time highs then there will likely be a lot.
This provides an opportunity for asymmetric risk bets where you can lose deployed capital but stand a chance of a more than double return. Doing exact EV calculations on this is difficult and inaccurate but can provide a useful framework for high risk, high reward investments. However putting the effort in to crypto research to come up with your own assessments will provide high conviction investment opportunities. Hopefully this information on how I carry out crypto research has been of interest and helps someone develop their own crypto research systems.
The way a company handles ESG issues can affect its long-term performance and valuation. Because of this, more investors are insisting that ESG factors are specifically included in the due diligence process to better manage risk and enhance performance. Many investors are beginning to require ESG due diligence reports, which include differentiation between each of the ESG criteria. For example, environmental issues can include pollution, exposure to extreme weather, carbon management, and use of scarce resources.
Governance issues can include factors such as accounting standards compliance, succession planning, anti-competitive behavior, and a strong ESG management process. ESG due diligence sheds light on a company's controversial or illegal behaviors while providing insight into positive ESG actions and programs. These reports and data help investors make sound, ethical investment decisions that support the primary purpose of all due diligence: risk mitigation. The due diligence process helps investors identify red flags before a transaction occurs.
This process also helps identify if the company has solidified routines and procedures that help prevent violations or relevant laws and regulations. For example, ESG due diligence for an oil and gas company might report on their environmental impact in greater detail, while a company in the financial industry may place greater emphasis on social and governance factors. ESG standards should be measured by sector, tailored to individual companies, and take geographic regions and business models into account.
The ESG due diligence process should start early, ideally at the same time as other due diligence processes. Delaying the process means considerable risks and opportunities for improvement might be missed or discovered too late.
This framework helps steer implementation and will shed light on all the ESG issues to consider. All parties involved should agree on a common ESG strategy, policy, and execution. After this is completed, firms can generate an analysis and make recommendations. While standards and regulations around ESG remain unstructured and due diligence must be tailored by industry and sector, there are some best practices emerging within the private equity industry.
Create a formal ESG policy Developing an ESG policy provides documentation that can be shared with stakeholders and offers a guideline for the due diligence process. Focusing only on the material ESG issues and risks relevant to the investment will ensure proper due diligence.
If you've identified a potential cryptocurrency investment, one of the first steps you should take is to research the business model. Key areas of ODD for crypto assets, including custody, trade processes, valuation and asset verification, conflicts of interest, and regulatory. Real Due Diligence (DD) Guidelines for Crypto Companies · A reasonably sized circulating supply or what's called a 'float' in the traditional markets · We.